Android Fragmentation - A Never Ending Problem

Google has posted the latest allocation of versions for their extremely popular mobile OS and it continues to show signs of continuing fragmentation. And it is really starting to look like the fragmentation is never going to go away. While many have talked about how bad it actual is and the impact to developers of apps, the very nature of the marketplace is continuing to contribute to the problem. One of the big issues for the Android OS is that it continues to improve and that improvement requires new and better hardware.

If you have an Android smart phone that is more than a year old, odds are you are running Android 4.0 (Ice Cream Sandwich). And it is more than likely that you will not be seeing the newer release of Android 4.1 (Jelly Bean). The next version is Android 5.0 (Key Lime Pie) and is expected to arrive in the 3rd quarter on a smart phone to be determined. And that is going to add to the fragmentation issues which exist and will continue to exist. Typically, Google ties the launch of the next Android OS to the launch of hardware, such as the Nexus smart phone or tablet.

The biggest problem that is going on right now is the number of devices still running Gingerbread which is showing as 45.6%. If you add up all the Android 2.x numbers, you get 46.9%. If you add up all the Android 4.x numbers, you get 42.6%. The fact that Android 4.x is not representing more than Android 2.x numbers is something of a concern. Part of the problem is low end phones still selling which are running Gingerbread because their hardware cannot support the needs of Android 4.x. And that is not going to change in the foreseeable future.

As manufacturers continue to produce phones which meet the needs of a variety of people and prices, we are going to continue to see Android Fragmentation. And when Key Lime Pie shows up, that is going to add to the problems of fragmentation. It is not going to take long for those who are eligible to upgrade to Android 5.0 and reduce the numbers for Android 4.x. It is a goal for most smart phone owners to have the latest Android OS on their phones. All of this is probably not going to change the majority representation which Gingerbread currently has and looks like they are going to continue to maintain.

Microsoft Creates Fragmentation For Windows Phone 7

Microsoft joins Google and Apple with fragmentation.

Microsoft has long been known as a company who continues to support older equipment with their OS software. They have done that for many years with their backward compatible phrase which meant that the latest version of the OS would work with your computer. Even now as they start to have hardware requirements which require you to make sure that your computer is compatible, they did not leave people hanging. That is until it came to announcing the latest version of the Windows Phone OS. And with that, they are announcing that there is no upgrade path for Windows Phone 7 owners.

What this all means is that only new hardware will be able to support Windows Phone 8. Any phone which is sold with Windows Phone 7 is stuck with that version and has no hope of upgrading to the latest OS from Microsoft which is coming this year. That is horrible news for those who have purchased their phone in the last 6 months. Even Google with their Android OS has provided an upgrade path to Ice Cream Sandwich for most of the phones recently purchased. Apple, who does things much better than Google, supports back to the iPhone 3GS with the latest version of iOS.

While we do expect to see some fragmentation over time where some owners are able to upgrade their smart phone to the latest OS and others purchase a new phone which contains the latest OS, we have not seen this kind of a situation quite like this. It is unlike Microsoft to deliver horrible news to those who have recently purchased a Windows Phone OS mobile device.

That is unless you look at Nokia who has abandoned their Symbian OS to partner with Microsoft and their Windows Phone 7. Even those who have purchased the recent Nokia handsets are out of luck for Windows Phone 8 and do not have an upgrade path. What they will get is a Windows Phone 7.8 version which is supposed to have a closer look and feel to Windows Phone 8. Not much consolation for them.

It is very unlike Microsoft to draw a line in the sand like this and create this kind of fragmentation which Google has been taking heat over for a long time. If this is the "New" Microsoft, they are going to be doing similar things in the future which may leave some people hanging when Microsoft comes out with new versions of their software.

Are Wireless Carriers Responsible For Fragmentation?

Carriers release few updates for phones as compared to the OS updates created.

 
And it is the lack of updates being released which should be raising some big concerns amongst all the manufacturers of phones. While there is no empirical proof of the number of updates which smart phone owners never seem to get, there are enough examples of this which point out problems. The upgrade process for the OS on a smart phone should be multiple times over the course of a year and yet it seems that there is often only a single update. That is unless you have an Apple iPhone where they force these on wireless carriers and prevent them from adding their items to the puzzle. For Android devices, this is turning into a big problem which is not going to go away until some things change in the process.

It seems that wireless carriers are at odds with the largest OS provider in Google's Android OS. Recently, there has been some finger pointing between AT&T and Google which in this case made AT&T look bad. This is all over the problems with the slow roll out of Ice Cream Sandwich (Android 4.0). The slow roll out is a big problem for Google right now as they only have 4.9% of Android devices on the latest OS for all active Android phones. Given that Android 4.0 has been out since November on the Galaxy Nexus, it makes one wonder exactly what is going on.

This seems to point squarely at wireless carriers for the delays, though manufacturers of smart phones are to blame as well. They all seem to want to add their pieces to the Android OS and that slows things down. There is the development time and then testing for each step along the way. If a problem is discovered in testing, it goes back to development for a fix and then a repeat of the process. If this process were to be changed so that the stock Android 4.0 was used and no other changes to the OS were done other than to support the individual hardware, that would significantly speed up the process. Or would it.

In a post from Gotta Be Mobile by Adam Mills, he is relating his experiences with his Galaxy Nexus which he purchased from Verizon 5 months ago. Since he purchased the phone, he has not seen an update from Verizon. Not one. He is currently running Android 4.0.2 which came with the phone when he purchased it. Since that time, Android 4.0.3 and Android 4.0.4 has been released. Android 4.0.4 started rolling out to Galaxy Nexus phones, but only for the GSM version. To date, there has been no release of the latest version of Ice Cream Sandwich at Verizon since the Galaxy Nexus was launched. This is a very bad sign.

I owned a Blackberry Storm for a time which I purchased from Verizon back in January of 2009. This was a few months after the 9530 model was released and it had a number of reported bugs associated with the phone which could be easily fixed by a software update. Ever 3 or 4 weeks, there was another updated OS from Blackberry to fix problems, but these were never released by Verizon. This seemed to continue for what seemed like an eternity. Finally, in October 2009 came the official word that Verizon was releasing the 5.0.0.328 OS update for the Blackberry Storm. This was great to download and fix problems, but that was the last update for the phone that I ever saw.

This is not to pick on Verizon as all the other wireless carriers in the US have probably done the same thing at one time or another. And it is probably more widespread than we would all like to believe. The pattern that I am seeing is that you get one significant software update and that is it. You are done until you purchase your next phone. I am sure I am blowing this out of proportion, but then again maybe I am not. In an article about Android Orphans, the number of devices which are one or more versions behind is not how it should be. I am sure that you can find other examples of this by doing some searches on the web.

The idea of only getting a single OS update on a phone is very discouraging and something must change. If not, people are going to start looking elsewhere for a phone where they are able to get multiple updates over the course of the year. And a phone where they get a major update close to an annual basis. At the moment, Apple is the only one that has been able to fulfill that and Google had better take notice. I am not an iPhone supporter and prefer the Android OS, but the idea of only getting a single update from my wireless carrier is discouraging.

Have you had a similar experience of only getting a single OS update to your phone?

Android Fragmentation: Finger Pointing Begins For ICS

AT&T implies Google is to blame for slow roll out of Android 4.0

 
The battle to get Android 4.0 rolled out in order to upgrade existing smart phones has now turned to finger pointing as to exactly who is at fault. This has been building for a time, but has suddenly emerged into the spotlight based on recent comments from AT&T this week. There have been hints of this growing trouble over the past few months as to where the real problem lies in getting the latest version of the Android OS cleanly and quickly rolled out. It is those comments regarding "negotiated agreements" which seemed to have caused some problems.

Stephenson said, in response to a question from the audience. "Google kind of determines what platform gets the newest releases and when. Often times that's a negotiated arrangement, and so that's something we work at hard. We know that it's important to our customers."

A negotiated arrangement has been responded to by Google and a negotiated arrangement does not exist. So, the question comes up as to where the problems really lies with the Android fragmentation. The most recent reports are showing disappointing growth for Android 4.0 and the numbers are showing it is going to take a long time to get upgrades rolled out. Jean-Baptiste Queru is part of the Android Open Source Project (ASOP) and is in the know as to what is going on. From his Google+ page under "15 minutes, and 8 months" he lays out the waiting game to get things rolled out for a new Android OS. This is just the reality in the industry.

Now starts another 8-month waiting game. In over 10 years working on the software side of the cell phone industry, I've learned that it takes about 8 months between getting the software ready and seeing it widely deployed. Edit: Meaning, deployed on new devices.

But does it have to be. Once Google (or Microsoft) rolls out an updated OS, it first goes to the manufacturers so that they can make the necessary changes to the OS to support the chip set on the mobile device. That is to be expected and does take a certain amount of time to make sure it works correctly under testing conditions. It is after this point when things start to break down. Various manufacturers then add their pieces to the OS, such as a customized interface or other software add ons. Once they have finished with that, it is turned over to wireless carriers who then add their pieces to the puzzle as interface changes or added software to the mix. All of this take a lot of time to be done. Especially as the OS gets more complicated beyond the pure Ice Cream Sandwich released by Google.

All of this takes time and apparently is understood by Jean-Baptiste Queru as part of the process. There are some things which could be done in an effort to speed up the process, such as what Microsoft has done to move things forward quicker. But Android is Open Source and there in lies part of the problem. Manufacturers and wireless carriers are free to do pretty much anything they want to OS, all of which take time. So, why is AT&T pointing fingers at Google in the roll out process?

AT&T may be doing this as part of a bigger strategy to deflect blame away from the carrier which in the end is not really going to change public opinion. They have been trying to blame the FCC for their recent price hikes because of the failure of the T-Mobile deal. The reality is they probably would have raised their prices anyway and this is a smoke screen to deflect blame. The same thing applies to the slow Android roll out. The manufacturers are the first barrier to the roll out and then the wireless carriers are the second barrier to the roll out.

What would happen if the manufacturers and wireless carriers did not change or add to Android 4.0? We probably would not have the level of fragmentation we are seeing today.

Android 4.0 ICS Growth Disappointing

Disappointing increase from 2.9% to 4.9% indicate a slow down in adoption.

 
Numbers for the various flavors of Android have been updated on the Android Developers site. Those new numbers are an update to the April 2nd ones and are as of May 1st which reflect the previous 14 days and reflect active mobile devices during that time frame. The much smaller than expected increase continues to magnify the Google Android Fragmentation issues which are a growing problem for Google. Given the number of active version in play, the expectation was for Ice Cream Sandwich to be in double digits with this latest report. There has been a growing number of reports for mobile devices getting Android 4.0 and that was expected to drive the numbers much higher than they are being reported. You can take a look at the most recent information at the Android developers site under the Platform Versions.

I talked about the numbers last month and the reported delays in mobile devices getting Ice Cream Sandwich. Some popular Android phones are in the process of getting Android 4.0, such as the Galaxy S2 but it is still rolling out and Samsung is expected to announce the Galaxy S3 in a few days. That speaks to the problems which are plaguing the latest OS from Google. Even the Galaxy Note 5.3, which was announced to be getting Ice Cream Sandwich in the first quarter and has yet to receive the update. It is now being reported that the Galaxy Note will get it some time this quarter which is a pretty vague statement for the arrival. And this is for a phone which Samsung is heavily promoting.



While some are promoting the idea of Android fragmentation as good for developers, it is problematic for consumers. Those who have purchased smart phones in the past 6 months have expected to already have received the latest update to Android 4.0 and many are still waiting. There are new Android smart phones being sold this year which are not coming with Ice Cream Sandwich and that condition continues today. It has been almost 6 months since Google announced Ice Cream Sandwich and another month before it appeared on the Galaxy Nexus. That was in December and here we are in May and still Android 4.0 has yet to roll out to all possible mobile devices. This is a huge mistake and should be at a point where we are seeing the last few devices getting the latest OS. It looks more like we are in the middle of the roll out given the poor showing of the numbers here.

Given that Jean-Baptiste Queru of the Android Open Source Project has said it takes about 8 months to "seeing it widely deployed" for software in the cell phone industry to be distributed. Since Android 4.0 came out in November, that would mean we would see it widely deployed by July. At a 4.9% distribution as being reported here, they have a really long ways to go before it will get to that point.

The expectation of Android 4.0 being "widely distributed" by July do not seem realistic given we are at 4.9%. That is no where near where they need to be if a substantial distribution is expected. At this point, Jelly Bean , Android 5.0, is rumored to arrive in Q3 and there have already been leaked builds. At the rate of distribution for Android 4.0, there will be some mobile devices still waiting for for Ice Cream Sandwich when Android 5.0 is released. Android fragmentation is only going to get worse given what we are seeing from this most recent report.

Do you believe that Android fragmentation is going to get much worse?